Scottish Independence Debate: Proposal for a Preliminary Poll 

The pro-independence rallies held in towns and cities across Scotland on the evening after the Supreme Court’s ruling on the right of Holyrood to hold a second Scottish Independence Referendum suggest that, while the legal niceties may have been tidied away to Westminster’s satisfaction, the political question remains unanswered: How do the voters of a member nation of a supposedly voluntary union trigger a process of orderly secession from that union, if a majority so wish? 

Given that referenda are lengthy, divisive and expensive, the Scots surely need an enabling “Stage 1” mechanism of some sort. 

Accordingly, it is proposed that Scottish voters be given the power to decide when, if ever, there should be another referendum on independence, which could be achieved by Westminster’s legislating to conduct a “Preliminary Poll” of Scots coterminous with the next UK general election, such a poll to determine whether the Scots want a referendum on independence in the new Parliament, with such legislation embodying provision for a 2nd referendum, should the Scots want it. This additional poll could become a permanent feature of all future Westminster elections in Scotland and could be extended for use in Wales and Northern Ireland.

A Westminster-approved “Preliminary Poll” of this nature would settle the future of the Union for the foreseeable future by putting the voters of the Celtic Nations, rather than politicians, in the driving seat. It would enable Scots of every political persuasion* on both sides of the independence debate to determine whether they want a referendum and to make that decision in a considered and timely fashion at the same time as they were electing representatives to preside over the governance of the Union.

This proposal is being circulated as a way out of what is threatening to become a major constitutional crisis. Westminster should adopt it as a conciliatory, continuing and open-handed gesture, evidencing confidence in a Union where membership is nevertheless acknowledged to be voluntary.

David Green

December 2022

* According to a YouGov survey conducted last Autumn, SNP supporters are not alone in wanting independence; 28% of Scottish Labour voters, 11% of Scottish LibDem voters and even 4% of Scottish Conservative voters think Scotland should be an independent country!