What would have happened on 4th July 2024 if we had used a proportional voting system?
There are two reasons why it is difficult to predict how the July 2024 General Election might have turned out if a system of proportional representation had been used instead. Firstly, we could expect an increase in turnout as disaffected voters who abstained on July 4th (40% of the electorate!) would have taken the opportunity to use a more democratic voting system in the knowledge that their vote could make a difference. Secondly, many people would have voted differently, being able to vote positively for whom they wanted rather than having to vote tactically for someone who was not their first choice.
With that said, the Electoral Reform Society has calculated that, if exactly the same voters had voted in exactly the same way, a PR result would have looked something like this:-
| Seats won | Labour | Con | Reform | LibDem | Green | SNP | Plaid C | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Result | 412 | 121 | 5 | 72 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 23 |
| Possible PR Result | 237 | 157 | 94 | 77 | 42 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
Under these circumstances, one imagines the formation of a “progressive” national government comprising the Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green parties, together representing a clear majority of those who had voted. While this situation would have horrified your average power politician, it might have heralded a new, more consensual era in British politics, with those of different political persuasions working together, more in tune with how the general public go about their daily lives.
